Going against the Finance Minister’s estimation, the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) has forecasted the growth for the current fiscal at 8.7% slightly slower than Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council’s report (8.9%) indicating that the growth rate might be reduced from the current growth but enough strong to be satisfied.
Finance Minister has estimated that Indian economy would grow with closely 9% and the estimation of CSO is lower than that of his expectation. ‘It might be disappointing but not down heartening. The projected low rate in agricultural sector is behind this poor figures’, Chidambaram beliefs.
CSO has pointed out the reduction in growth rate is might be due to reduction in industrial and farm output that has been moderated since last couple of fiscal. The GDP in 2006-2007 was 9.6 % while it was 9.4 % in 2005-06. In the first half of the current fiscal year, growth rate was 91% while in the third and fourth quarter it was 9.3 and 8.9 respectively. The figure of last fiscal has indicated the moderation in the growth rate.
However, CSO has expected that the average growth of the last four fiscals would be higher than the figure of 2003-04’s. The national income has achieved historical gain of 38.5% of GDP while savings has project to touch 37% of GDP that is the highest ever gain.
In terms of inflation, this fiscal might curb the inflation rate and would be remain on 4.5%, while manufacturing sector came down from 12% to 9.4%. Mining and quarrying sector will also be likely to moderate with the growth rate of 3.4% compared to 5.7% in the previous financial year.
On the other hand in the booming sectors includes services sector, trade, hotels, transport and communication that are likely to expand 12.1% from 11.8%, whereas finance, real estate and business services will likely to see traction at 11.7% against 13.9%.
The total revenue of the current GDP estimates as Rs. 31,14,452 crore as against last year’s (2006-07) Rs.28,64,310 crore, while the total value of the Indian economy at current market prices stands at Rs 47 lakh crore ($1.175 trillion) in the globe.
The per capita income at current prices is estimated to be Rs 33,131 that was Rs 29,642 last year, showing a surge of 11.8% that is Rs. 1,700 more in a year. However, the agricultural sector is still in the panic zone and cannot see any amazing growth in the next fiscal too as the statistics shows.
The non-farm growth as per CSO estimation is likely to close around 10.1% growth whereas growth in the farm sector has been estimated at 2.6 % growth as against 3.8% of the last year’s figure according to CSO estimation. However, Economic Advisory Council (EAC) has forecasted the farm sector growth rate at 3.6%, having thick difference from the CSO’s figure.
The CSO statistical result was released on Thursday.
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