Saturday is going to be crucial for the UPA government as it might decide the fate of it. Survival of the government largely depends on the support of three small but chief, in present time, political parties without whom support it would be a hard nut to crack for the Congress-led UPA to outdo the floor test.
These three parties which have pushed the government on razor’s edge are Shibu Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Chaudhary Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and former prime minister H D Devegowda's Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S). They have held cards strongly to their chest and kept the UPA busy to keep on guessing.
While Devegowda will hold meeting with Prime Minister today to clear his party's stand, the five-member JMM parliamentary party will convene to take a decision on 'to support' or 'not to support' the government.
In fact, JMM is waiting for the ripe time when the much smaller parties having just 1 or 2 member uncover their decision on to going with government or against it on trust vote.
Soren is actually caught between two options: ministerial berth or Jharkhand's chief ministerial chair. While NDA is offering him chief ministerial chair, which he had to leave in 2005 after the Supreme Court's intervention on the NDA's petition, the Congress has promised him 'black diamond' ministry.
JMM supremo's stand can be understood in a simple mathematical equation: support α survival. If the Soren becomes sure of the government's survival even without his 5 MPs support, his party definitely will vote for government and conversely if he foresees that UPA is not going to survive even after his party's support, he would jump to NDAs flock.
With four of his colleague is nodding for support to UPA, the party's final decision might clear today after the parliamentary meeting.
Keeping aside one or two incidents of differentiation, the JD-S is considered closer to Congress than BJP. JD-S MP Virendra Kumar though has bugled against the UPA, but the party's stand completely depends on supremo Devegowda, whose meeting with Dr. Manmohan Singh is fixed today. The PM would pay attention on the Gowda's demand of the nationalisation of the Bellary mines.
The third key constituent is RLD. The government has already appeased the party chief Ajit Singh, son of former prime minister Chaudhary Charan Singh, Friday by renaming Lucknow airport to his father's name. His one demand is met, but he still is tight-lipped over his party's stand.
The three parties hold together vital 11 votes- JMM (5), RLD (3) and JDS (3)-much sufficient to the government's existence in power.
Along with these complexities, the Friday for the UPA ended with some adverse outcomes as five MPS of the Samajwadi Party have sounded bugle against the party and announced to vote against the UPA on July 22. With this, the SP's support has been slackened to 34.
Congress is, however, sure of the National Conference (2 MPs) members that either will vote for the government or will abstain themselves from the House on July 22.
An overall calculation till now has kept the beam in balanced position with 262 for pro-deal and the same stands against deal. But, the end of the day might come with some decisive outcomes.
Who cares morality and ethics, it is time for smaller parties' MPs to come and pick bundles of currency, portfolios in the ministry or other invaluable demands which have been showcased in the open bazar restrictively opened for MPs.
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