Is Advani fit to become PM?

By naming L K Advani for Prime Ministerial candidate for the next general elections schedule in 2009, the BJP pushed ahead a fresh agenda on the eve of Gujarat Assembly elections. This was a well-calculated move to send the message across the voters that Advani is not only very much in the race for the post but also wields enough power in the party. With the ailing Vajpayee not in contention, Venkaiah Naidu sidelined, Murli Manohar Joshi third in line of succession, Rajnath Singh seems unfit, and Jaitley too young, the BJP has to rely on Advani to do some charisma. In popularity rating, Advani is far behind Narendra Modi, who fetched convincing win in the recently concluded assembly elections. Though the news may be echoed in the media for some time, the decision, taken in haste, will have far reaching consequences for the country. Surely, the party is going to face stiff challenges and criticisms on the issue from all quarters apart from differences within the party rank and file that might appear as the general election's time come nearer.

However, there are some genuine concerns related to his elevation as the candidate for PM's post for the largest democracy that have to be taken into consideration. First, the BJP named Advani without any formal consultation with any of the NDA partners, especially Biju Janata Dal, Janta Dal (U), AIADML and TDP, saying that this was an internal matter of the BJP. This is not the case and is against the coalition dharma . The fact that the BJP will have the support of all the NDA allies, if the party comes to power under LK Advani's leadership in 2009, is purely based on political conjecture. It is highly likely that the support from the allies will depend on the outcome of the elections 2009, which is unpredictable at this time. Segregating the support of its allies on this issue will be one of the biggest headaches for the BJP because in an era of coalition government, securing absolute majority will be a distant dream for the BJP even if it will gain from the anti-incumbency factor, as it has done in recent assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh.

Second, the decision is by far a short sighted one, as the age factor is another big hurdle. Advani will already be 82 by the time the next government is formed, and if selected he will be the oldest Prime Minister of India at the time of assuming office, leaving behind Morarji Desai, who had assumed office at the age of 80. Even though Advani takes oil-free diet, home-made dal and one or two chapati s each during lunch and dinner and takes an hour brisk walk in the morning, he can feel the pangs of growing age factor. The BJP cannot guarantee a sound health from Advani, who is supposed to work 16-18 hours a day to do justice to his position.

Third, how far his relations with the RSS is repaired is a matter of speculation since following his remarks on Jinnah when he visited the mausoleum of the creator Pakistan last year. Moreover, K.S. Sudarshan's observation that he wants Vajpayee and Advani to step aside for younger leaders is a case in point. In recent times, the relatiohsip between BJP and VHP has been sour due to the inability of the former in addressing Hindutva ideology. How far this relatiohsip is bridged within two years time is no less than a Herculain task for Advani. Since the VHP cadres will have a greater say in elections, the BJP will have to depend on this ally, and without any concrete promise it will not support Advani's candidacy, at least the VHP will not allow Advani to repeat 1998-2004 stint during which NDA failed to construct the Ram Temple .

Fourth, Advani, projects himself the leader of a community through his hardliner image backed up by the RSS tilt, like Shahabuddin projects the spokesman of Muslims, who could bring a government that would be ideal for the RSS, VHP and others. On the one hand, he has to show the world that he is a moderate leader who could carry the grand Indian political ethos based on democracy, socialism, and secularism. At the same time, he has to keep the RSS, VHP, and others happy by pushing forward the Hindutva agenda to remain in power. This is near impossible task for Advani.

Fifth, on the succession issue BJP is very much behaving like Congress where dynasty is extra important whereby all members of the Gandhi family should be benefited from the political fruition. The so-called discipline of the BJP gives way to hierarchical climb on the political ladder, and the experts feel that no one fits the bill than Advani, who should be repaid for his services, done for the party. And Rajnath Singh is not “known� at the all-India level, Advani is at least a household name, even in the Muslim ghettos.

Last but not the least, a big issue is the acceptance of Advani as the PM by Muslims. Unlike AB Vajpayee, Advani is not liked by a large section of Muslims, the second largest population in this country, due to his pivotal role in Ram Temple movement in Ayodhaya in the 1990s, and whose communal speeches created the great divide Indian did not witness since independence. The Muslims have not forgotten that this man led the rath yatra across the country, which left behind a trail of anti-Muslims riots killing over 3000 Muslims and burning and looting their properties in many states. More importantly, on the fateful day, Advani was sitting on a platform from where slogans like 'ek dhakka aur do, Babri Masjid tod do' (give another push, demolish the Babri Mosque) were being raised.

Delivering inflammatory speeches to spread communal hatred has been the hallmark of his political propaganda on which he has built his career graph so far. While the outcome of the Liberhan Commission is awaited, any indictment would be either politically disastrous for the Prime Minister-in-waiting or help soar his popularity among Hindu vote bank. This will only give rise to the polarization of India politics.

By his views on various key issues, his image, his age, and his style of changing track, Advani seems unfit for the post of Prime Minister.

* The writer is Editor, Consumer Unity & Trust Society or. CUTS, India

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