Washington, Oct. 20 (ANI): As US President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney race for the White House, pollsters have take the initiative to explain why polls that are conducted in the same span of time, or at times, regions, may produce contrasting results.
They say that even among polls conducted over the same span of time, different methodologies, whether it's differences in the way survey samples are chosen or differences in the way the surveys are conducted, can lead to varying results, CBS News reports.
According to the report, as recently as two weeks ago, political prognosticators were looking at polls and declaring, "If Romney would have to pull off a miracle to close the gap in national polling, he has no shot at matching the president in the electoral college."
However, this week, with Gallup polling showing Romney with a strong national lead over President Obama, some conservatives are pointing to the Republican candidate's likely victory, the report said.
"Poll results reflect the mindset of voters during the time the poll was conducted. Those voters can change their minds later, or decide not to vote, or not be able to get to the polls on Election Day to vote," CBS News director of surveys Sarah Dutton explained.
Furthermore, Dutton said that variations might surface as some polls look at people who say they will definitely vote, while others identify "likely voters" based on their responses to a number of questions, such as past vote history, whether they know where their voting place is, and whether they will definitely vote in this election.
Gallup editor-in-chief, Frank Newport said that Gallup's likely voter model "takes into account changes in the response to questions about how closely they're following and how enthusiastic they are."
"The relatively large difference between the likely voter numbers and registered voter numbers may be because the likely voter model is very sensitive to changes in enthusiasm," Newport added.(ANI)
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