The Big Game in our neighbourhood (Article)

New Delhi, Sep.29 (ANI): It was after the 1965 India-Pakistan war that the Chinese gained a significant foothold in Pakistan. China had its own reasons then and today there even more reasons why China would continue to favour Pakistan. Pakistan has been useful to China in the past and will remain so in the times ahead.

Pakistan has been a low-cost no risk option for China against India and Beijing has constantly played on Rawalpindi's self-serving fears regarding India. This will continue in the future and China will supply Pakistan with military hardware, missiles nuclear technology and equipment in the years ahead. As China's economy has developed Pakistan has become a high value real estate that provides access to the Arabian Sea and shortens the sea routes for energy and trade, notably between Xinjiang and the sea. Gwadar will, in that context, be a high value port especially when the Chinese Navy develops blue water capabilities and in need of berthing and refuelling facilities in the Arabian Sea.

China has to maintain its present rate of economic growth even to prevent domestic unrest, leave alone becoming a world leader. Guaranteed access to energy, in which China is deficient as well as access to markets and other resources for the development of its outlying regions is of utmost importance. China therefore eyes not only Gwadar port for its exports in the future but also for import of some of its energy requirements from Africa cutting short the travel distance and time if this were routed through the Malacca Straits. It eyes the prospect of Iranian gas piped through Balochistan along the alignment of the Karakorum Highway into China. There has been talk of constructing rail links and developing the highways between Balochistan up to the Khunjerab Pass.

Developments in Afghanistan have been watched by China very carefully. It sees an ultimate retreat of the US and ISAF. And it sees itself as the heir to being the supreme power in the region ably assisted by or assisting Pakistan in controlling a post-US Afghanistan. China has won a 3.5 billion dollar contract to develop Afghanistan's Aynak copper field, the largest foreign direct investment project in the history of Afghanistan. The size of the bid indicates Chinese stakes in this project which could contain up to 88 billion dollars worth of ore. The bid includes the cost of building a 400-megawatt, coal-fired power plant and a freight railroad passing from western China through Tajikistan and Afghanistan to Pakistan.

It is in pursuance to this, there is increased Chinese presence in POK and Gilgit and Baltistan, to develop infrastructure facilities in the region for access to Afghanistan as the Wakhan Corridor may not be enough. It would be in the mutual interest of both China and Pakistan that a pro-Pakistan Afghanistan evolves after 2014 - the projected date of withdrawal of US forces. Given the penchant of the Chinese leadership to think of grandiose schemes like the Tibetan Railway and the Three Gorges Dam, it should not surprise us if they have a similar project in mind in POK/Gilgit and Baltistan. The Chinese leadership also thinks long term and would be looking at a stabilised Afghanistan to provide alternative access to Iran. If this materialises then China would be in significant control, not only in West Asia, but China and Pakistan together could lock India out of West and Central Asia.

China's other fear has been the spill over of Islamic radicalism from Pakistan and Afghanistan into the Muslim Xinjiang Province in western China. Links between the Islamic fundamentalists and East Turkestan Movement have been suspected. It would endeavour to favour and deal with the Taliban in many ways so that the danger of fundamentalism in Xinjiang recedes. This is not going to be easy but the Chinese have played a low profile game which seems to be getting them some benefits as well to the Afghans.

China views the growing relationship between India and the US with some suspicion as being directed against it. China will therefore never give up the Pakistan option. It sees every challenge as an opportunity.

China's attitude towards India is unlikely to change in the future. Growing economic and trade relations in the absence of sound political relations and disputed boundary, detracts from a healthy and substantive relationship.

Chinese will talk of its peaceful rise, but from time to time remind India of the disputed boundary not only with them but also with Pakistan. hina will not allow India to emerge as its equal or challenger. This is evident from its attitude to the Indo-Us nuclear deal, India's attempts to seek P5 status and so on. Instead, China would continue to try and give Pakistan a similar deal.

US long term interests have been the fear that nuclear assets of Pakistan could reach Islamic terrorists who could then threaten the US. The American short term goal today is to withdraw from Afghanistan under the pretext of having solved the problem. It is finding it difficult to combine the two goals. The current high rhetoric from official and journalistic as well as think tanks about Pakistan could have a momentum of its own, leading to greater instability. There has been increased visible activity between Saudi Arabia, China and Pakistan. Quite obviously Pakistan is shoring up its defences.

In view of this, it is necessary to keep a close watch on the region so that we are not surprised by a joint Pak-China move against our interests. (ANI)

ttn: News Editors/News Desks: The views expressed in above article are that of Mr. Vikram Sood, former Secretary, R andAW.