New Delhi, Mar.5 (ANI): Will there be a "churning of seas" when an emerging India and rising China begin to cross footprints of either rivalry or competition?
And what should be done to mitigate that kind of dangers?
This is the topic of a book, titled "Samudra Manthan: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific" written by Dr. C. Raja Mohan, the Head of the Strategic Affairs Programme at Observer Research Foundation, and released here by National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon on Monday night.
Menon said, in his opinion, the talk of "Sino-Indian maritime rivalry is overdone and that it is not inevitable". He also argued that the Indo-Pacific is not one geopolitical unit, although security is indeed linked across the seas and oceans that encircle the Asian landmass.
"In geo-political terms, and in terms of the naval capabilities of the different navies other than the US that operate between Suez and Hawaii, this space still consists of three distinct areas: the Indian Ocean, the western Pacific and the seas near China (namely the South China Sea, the East Sea and the Sea of Japan). This becomes clearer when you actually look at the behaviours of the navies that operate in this space," Menon said.
He said both India and China have a common interest in keeping the sea lines of communication through the Indian and Pacific Oceans open as these SLOCS are vital for trade and energy flows for both for the countries. He noted that there have been instances of cooperation between the Navies of India and China in anti-piracy operations off Somali coast and the Gulf of Aden.
Former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran said it would be strange if China's growing economic wealth was not translated to political power. "This is a reality we have to deal with. There would be expanding presence of China - both on land frontiers as well as maritime frontiers. I don't think this is in doubt anymore."
Saran further said while there is some kind of an economic architecture in place, with the central pillar being China, there is no visible architecture as far as security concerned. "That is the asymmetry that causes concern," he said, adding "is it possible for us to think about a matching architecture which in some way reconciles expanding China with other countries."
He said India is for an inclusive, transparent, balanced security architecture which will provide a sense of mutual reassurance.
Rear Admiral (retd) Raja Menon stressed on the need for maritime CBMs between India and China while pointing out that China would like PLA's Navy to ply world's oceans to ensure safety to their trade and energy inflows.
Giving a snapshot of the book, Dr. Raja Mohan said the merging India and rising China would lead to crossing of maritime footprints by these Asian powers and may end up in "unique circumstances" and "unique challenges" and historic tension.
"We should talk about these challenges so that we can mitigate dangers through dialogues," Dr Raja Mohan said.
Moderating the panel discussion, Mr Sunjoy Joshi, Director, ORF, said the new world order could be of new coalitions, and so underlined the need to build "the right coalition at the right time". (ANI)
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