As per latest monsoon forecast, this year the country will receive a little above normal rainfall of 106%. This certainly brings cheers to the economy as about 65% of Indian agriculture directly depends on the monsoon rain. So, when monsoon fails as it was in the last couple of years, millions suffer.
Last year monsoon in most parts of India was less than normal, as a result, as many as 10 states were declared draught. Govt. of India sanctioned about Rs. 10,000 crore as relief package, knowing the fact that about half of the population, about 600 million, depend directly on the rainfall.
While in the last decade, the year 2009 was the worst in terms of monsoon with about 22-23% less rainfall, last year the shortage in rainfall was 14%. The worst impact of the monsoon is not just the current agriculture but the following winter crop which is mostly done by irrigation. Besides, lack of rainfall further worsen the drinking water condition.
This year shortage of drinking water has been a big issue in major Indian cities as well as most states. Hence, a good rainfall is necessary for a good agriculture that is an impetus to the overall economy by checking inflation. However, this four-month period of June to September should bring normal rainfall to every part of India.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) director general L S Rathore who very optimistically announced the latest forecast said that the forecast is mostly certain with 94% probability that the rainfall will be at least 96%. As per IMD, 96 -104% of the long period average (LPA) is a normal rain, while anything below 90 – 96% of LPA is below normal and <90% is considered as deficient.
No doubt, climate change is the reason of extreme monsoons. However, we also must not be complacent by simply waiting for the good effect of a good monsoon. As we are yet to explore and exploit modern rainwater conservation or water management techniques, there is every possibility that we will end up wasting a huge amount of rain water.
At government and community level, we must explore the ways to conserver rainwater so that we can save water for an entire year. There should be a massive scale work at the rural level by creating new tanks, ponds and watersheds. As we can look at our agriculture, we certainly need reform, both in the form of crop management as well as farmer-centric government policies.
As far as government is concerned, let there be easy loans available for small and marginal farmers with very nominal interest rates. There are farmers in rural areas who depend heavily on private money lenders and pay a high interest when they are not even sure whether they will have a good crop in return or not.
Productivity of land is another issue which has not been brought to the front by subsequent governments. Coupled with poor technology and investment, Indian agriculture also suffers from excessive use of fertilizers that further deteriorates the quality of farmland. While we must depend on monsoon, there should be wholesome effort to actually tackle any challenge even in the absence of a good monsoon.
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